Did We Miss Out on Bitcoin?

It’s tempting to look at the Bitcoin growth chart for this year and think we’ve missed out on the big win and that there’s only minimal upside available from here forward.

Screen Shot 2017-12-10 at 1.06.43 PM

16x growth in a year (from less than $1,000 in January to around $16,000 today) makes those thoughts understandable. And, maybe this really is Peak Bitcoin.

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I keep comparing cryptocurrencies in 2017 to dot coms in the mid to late 1990s, and I think the comparison is helpful in this case as well.

This is Amazon’s stock chart from January 1998 to January 1999.

Screen Shot 2017-12-10 at 1.05.25 PM

It looks almost identical to the Bitcoin chart above. Amazon skyrocketed from around $6 at the start of 1998 to more than $90 by early 1999. Surely by then it was too late to capitalize on Amazon’s big run up, right?

This is the full Amazon stock chart from 1998 to the present. Amazon is currently trading at $1162, more than 10x where it was in 1999. The big spike above is in the first gray bar at the far left of this graph.

Screen Shot 2017-12-10 at 1.20.55 PM

Who knows whether Bitcoin will go up another 10x or more like Amazon or if it will flame out entirely like Pets.com. But the game is early, and it’s definitely not too late to get involved.

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